Monday, February 13, 2012

‘Could Mitt Lose Michigan?‘
  Election 2012 piece by Aaron Goldstein

Mitt Romney appeared to regain his footing this weekend. After being swept by Rick Santorum the Missouri Primary and in the Minnesota and Colorado Caucuses, Romney rebounded with a straw poll victory at CPAC as well as prevailing in the week long Maine Caucus.

But Romney could face his toughest battle yet and in the place he would have least expected it – Michigan. Rick Santorum is winning over Republicans and blue collar Reagan Democrats in the Wolverine State and has clawed his way to the top of the polls. (1) The American Research Group currently has Santorum leading Romney by six points (33% to 27%). (2) Meanwhile, Public Policy Polling gives Santorum an even more substantial lead of fifteen points over Romney (39% to 24%) and notes that he is leading Romney in every county in Michigan save for Oakland County where Romney grew up. (3) This is not good news for Romney.

Should Romney lose to Santorum in Michigan, be it by six points or fifteen, it would be a stinging rebuke. After all, the people of Michigan thrice his elected his father George Romney during the 1960s. While one could argue that the elder Romney is a distant memory for many Michigan residents, it must be remembered that the younger Romney convincingly won the 2008 Michigan Primary over eventual GOP nominee John McCain by nine points. A loss in Michigan on February 28th could very well put a dagger through the heart of Romney’s campaign even if he were to win the Arizona Primary later that same evening. If Romney can’t beat Rick Santorum in Michigan then how could he expect beat President Obama there?

However, Romney has time on his side. Two weeks to be exact. If a week in politics is a lifetime then two weeks is an eternity. It is more than enough time for Romney to sharpen his Wolverine claws and rip Santorum to shreds as he did with Newt Gingrich last month in Florida following the former Speaker’s upset victory in the South Carolina Primary.

The question now is if Santorum’s hide thick enough to withstand Romney’s persistent clawing. I’m not sure how helpful it is for Santorum to suggest that Romney rigged the results of the CPAC straw poll. (4) This is something on which Santorum ought not to dwell. He is far better served by looking ahead than by looking back. As Satchel Paige often said, “Don’t look back. Something might be gaining on you.” In this case, that something would be Romney with his teeth drawn. Given what is at stake on February 28th, these encouraging poll numbers for Santorum in Michigan are certainly something more worthy of his attention than being on the short end of a far less consequential straw poll which amounts to little more than a bale of hay.

Besides what exactly can Romney say against Santorum? He cannot credibly criticize Santorum on social issues such as abortion and gay marriage without drawing attention to his own inconsistencies on those matters. He certainly cannot criticize Santorum on foreign affairs and national defense. At best, Romney can call Santorum a Washington insider and accuse him of pork barrel spending and earmarks. (5) Whatever Santorum’s transgressions while he was on Capitol Hill they pale in comparison to the albatross of Romneycare which hangs over the former Massachusetts Governor’s perfectly coiffed hair like The Sword of Damocles. It certainly doesn’t help Romney that Santorum has been more effective than any other Republican rival in drawing attention to its shortcomings even getting Romney to refer to his own scheme as “Romneycare” in one of the recent GOP debates. (6)

Another factor which is working against Romney is that many conservatives do not want him attacking Santorum in the manner in which he attacked Gingrich. As Byron York noted in The Washington Examiner, a group of conservative activists met with Romney prior to his speech before CPAC and beseeched him to refrain from going after Santorum. (7) Clearly, Santorum has not made enemies with conservatives in the way Gingrich has over the years. So while many conservatives were more than happy that Romney went medieval on Gingrich the same cannot be said when it comes to Santorum and he might pay the price for disregarding this counsel.

The only way Romney’s strategy against Santorum works is if he, like Gingrich, becomes his own worst enemy. If Romney can manage to get Santorum to sound like a sullen, sanctimonious, scolding sourpuss in the next two weeks then he will have found his way to turn back yet another Republican challenger. But if Santorum’s skin proves to be thick enough, Republicans might very well defang Romney.

Aaron Goldstein

(1)  1

(2)  http://americanresearchgroup.com/

(3)  http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/santorum-moves-ahead-in-michigan.html

(4)  4

(5)  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-09/romney-attacks-santorum-as-insider-after-three-state-wipeout.html

(6)  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqLJgqPK0hg

(7)  7

Posted by Aaron Goldstein on 2/13/12

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